2017 Predictions

Following the same vein as Scott Alexander, here are my predictions for 2017:

UK:
1. Theresa May remains Prime Minister at the end of 2017: 95%
2. Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party at the end of 2017: 90%
3. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act is not repealed: 95%
4. An early General Election is not called: 95%
5. Scotland remains part of the UK, with no formal plan to secede: 99%
6. Nicola Sturgeon remains First Minister of Scotland at the end of 2017: 99%

7. UK GDP growth lower than in 2016: 50%

8. UK unemployment to be higher at end of year than beginning: 60%

US:
9. Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017: 90%

10. No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump: 80%
11. Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins: 80%

Europe:

12. The UK triggers article 50, beginning the process of withdrawing from the EU: 80%

13. Germany does not declare plan to leave EU: 99%

14. France does not declare plan to leave EU: 95%

15. No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan to leave: 80%

16. Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France: 50%

17. Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany: 70%

18. Fewer refugees admitted 2017 than 2016: 95%

World Events:

19. US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers: 60%

20. North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt: 95%

21. No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people: 90%

22. ...in any First World country: 80%

23. Assad will remain President of Syria: 80%

24. Israel will not get in a large-scale war (i.e. >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state: 90%

25. No major intifada in Israel this year (i.e. > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war): 80%

26. No interesting progress with Gaza or peace negotiations in general this year: 95%

27. No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza this year: 90%

28. Situation in Israel looks more worse than better: 70%

29. Syria’s civil war will not end this year: 60%

30. ISIS will control less territory than it does right now: 80%

31. No major civil war in Middle Eastern country not currently experiencing a major civil war: 90%

32. Ukraine will neither break into all-out war or get neatly resolved: 80%

33. No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party: 95%

34. No major war in Asia (with >100 Chinese, Japanese, South Korean, and American deaths combined) over tiny stupid islands: 99%

35. No exchange of fire over tiny stupid islands: 90%

Economics:
36. Oil (Brent Crude) will end the year higher than $50 a barrel: 70%
37. …higher than $60 a barrel: 50%
38. FTSE 350 will not fall > 10% this year: 60%

Work/Personal:
39. I will not change careers this year: 99%
40. I will not change employers: 95%
41. I will not change jobs: 90%
42. I will not relocate to a different locale: 99%
43. I will not move house: 95%
44. I will redecorate at least 1 room in my current house: 90%
45. Still driving my current car at end of 2017: 95%
46. I will travel to at least 2 foreign countries: 99%
47. ...but no more than 3: 95%
48. My marital status will not change: 99%
49. I will not acquire any additional pets: 90%
50. I attend at least 2 weddings this year: 90%
51. I weigh >140 pounds at the end of 2017: 95%
52. I weigh < 150 pounds at the end of 2017: 80%